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lapince

Huge flow of Rolex Daytonas on the 2nd hand/grey market

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I started a thread before this one "everyone is selling their watch or what?" because I was amazed at the number of Pam 233 and Rolex 116515 on sale on Chrono 24, where there was before around 15 Pam 233's for sale now there are 45, for the Daytona there are 135, the first person who answered to the thread also said he had been amazed by the number of watches on sale in the references which interested him, mostly subs and SD's, but the thread was closed because it went completely off track into a stupid talk about Daytonas, so we will stay general please, since it affects not only Daytonas but apparently all Rolexes and Panerai's, which are the 2 brands that I follow regularly, a few months ago when searching "panerai" there was around 950 now there are 3400!!!!!

For Rolex I remember it was around a few thousand, don't remember exactly but seems to me around 3-5.000 on sale, maybe a little more but practically sure that it was less than 8000, guess how many now??? 28875!!!!! What the hell is happening??? How is such a thing possible?

Have so many people who have nice watches turned bankrupt??

Another example, 2 months ago I was looking for a BLNR, and of course like always took a look on Chrono24, I seem to remember that there were about 20, now it's 97, and more than 95% are from second hand shops or from grey dealers, not private sellers, when I got mine I asked my 2 favorite grey dealers one could and did with 8% discount, but the other told me it was nearly impossible for him to lay his hands on one, so he could get one without the wait but he couldn't make any discount since even him would be getting it with only 200 euros discount from the retail price.

If anyone has even the beginning of an explanation or a hypothesis on what is happening I, and I'm sure not only I, would be very interested in hearing it.

Seeing this huge tsunami of watches arriving on the non AD market, if you follow basic economic facts, this means that the prices of 2nd hand watches will crumble to the ground, if you have 100 sellers for 1 buyer the price is bound to decrease dramatically, which is good when you are buying but not good when you are selling.

Must say I am

thinking.gif

:bang head:

twitcy.gif

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You would need more than 2 numbers to draw conclusions just yet.

There are many factors in markets. Could be summer month slow downs. Vacations, bonuses spent, etc. Need to have more data.

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When I say "a few times a month I look on Chrono24" is saying it lightly, it's more like a few times a week, since 2 months I was focusing my research there on Blancpain since it's the next watch I want to get, so it had been 2 months I didn't check on Rolex and Panerai, I looked for Daytona and 233, and am amazed at the numbers, same for the BLNR that I had been following until 2 months ago, of course I can't give other data since these are the models I followed and not others, and anything other than the number of Panerai's and Rolexes for sale on that site have exploded, and also that there was no explosion of the sort the 2 previous summers...

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This behavior occurs in the stock market. Not necessarily bubbles, but supply and demand are seldom balanced and consistent; more often there are peaks and valleys due to a variety of reasons - seasonal, economic conditions, trends (what's hot suddenly turns cold), etc.

I suspect the savvy watch dealer will, much as we stock pickers do, buy bargains during the dips and sell during the highs. Picking the right time - timing the market - can be difficult, though. You may buy at what seems to be a good price only to see the price go down further. Such is the fickle world of investing.

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Maybe the big outflux that went to Asia a few years ago is turning into an influx....are they lumped in any particular country/region?

Also, has number of dealers registered on site increased as of late?

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I think that it is just more people finding the Chrono24 website, both buyers and sellers.

I know there is a lot of discontent with selling on ebay, and any many dealers are looking for other outlets.

I remember when I could look through ALL of the Rolex listings on ebay with a dial up connection, in 2 hours. Now there are 41,500 listings under Rolex today. It would take me all week to go through the listings.

It doesn't mean that there are more watches for sale.

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Also there are 10,000 Omegas and 8400 Breitlings, so it's pretty much across the board.

Also in Rolex as one would expect the highest number is by far Datejust/Datejust II, over 8,000 examples available, no other model has even half that many.

Wrt number, sales are probably more robust at this time of year, so I'm sure that's got something to do with the higher number of listings.

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Having said that, I do think, the newer ceramic bezel models will come down in price as more inventory, builds up on the second hand market. Before the current line up of new sport models, Rolexs typically sold at a 30% discount on the second hand market. (Not the SS Daytona.)

We have not hit that ratio yet on the sport models.

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I think it has to do with the time of the year. It's summer, more people are on vacation, the weather is good, people are outside and not confined to the computer. Sales typically seem to pick up, when the weather worsens. That's just my opinion.....

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